Bottom for Stocks?
As the financial crisis mounts, the question of course is where is there a bottom for stocks. The fundamental rationale for any investing is that the price of the asset needs to be related to some underlying future economic variable (i.e. free cash-flow). Even though, it's impossible to truly estimate future cash-flow and the capitalization of that income stream is always up for debate, there will always still be some underlying cash-flow in the economy which will need to be capitalized. So from an optimistic standpoint, it's just a matter of getting a sense of the current cash-flow, and how much damage this recession will do to companies cash-flows before we can get a bottom in stocks. Once there is a rational way to estimate worst case scenario cash-flows, stocks should bottom. I suspect this can occur after the awful fourth quarter reports are out and companies provide an outlook based on the 1st quarter. Based on recency bias, it's likely most companies will extrapolate the current recent horrible economic environment into the future, and forecasts may prove overly conservative providing some basis for a worst case base cash-flow. Of course, these estimates may still prove optimistic if the economy
keeps collapsing, but it may prove profitable to gamble on the long
side, once all the bad earnings are in.


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